The 2026 trade war has been priced into Canadian supply chains, margins, and shelf prices. One place it has mostly not been priced into: insurance programmes. Risk consultancy Lockton flagged the problem in its fall 2026 Canadian report, and it deserves more attention than it's getting — because the gap it creates only becomes visible after a loss.
The state of play
In late August 2026, the United States imposed 50% tariffs on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Canada responded on September 8 with counter-tariffs of 15%, 25%, and 50% on a matching value of US imports. CUSMA remains in force, but the US declined in July to extend the agreement for a further 16-year term, moving the parties onto an annual review cycle that shortens every Canadian planning horizon — including the one your insurance programme was built on.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business estimates more than 53,000 Canadian businesses are directly affected by the US tariffs, Canadian counter-tariffs, or both.
Here are the four places that shows up in an insurance programme.
1. Property and stock: the limit is the same, the replacement isn't
Property and stock limits are supposed to reflect replacement cost — what it takes to buy the goods and equipment again, today. When duties add 15% to 50% to the landed cost of replacement inventory, machinery, or parts, a limit set in 2024 or 2025 quietly stops being enough.
Two failure modes follow. The obvious one: a total loss exhausts the limit before the business is made whole. The less obvious and more common one: co-insurance. Most commercial property policies require values to be maintained at a stated percentage of true replacement cost; fall short and the insurer proportionally reduces payment on partial losses too. A business that is 20% under-reported doesn't just lose the top slice — it collects less on every claim.
The fix is unglamorous: re-run replacement values with current, duty-inclusive costs, and do it with documentation. In the current soft market, carriers are granting agreed-value and margin-clause endorsements to well-documented accounts — protections that neutralize much of this risk and currently cost little to obtain.
2. Business interruption: longer, more expensive recoveries
Business interruption coverage is built on two assumptions: how much profit a disruption destroys per month, and how many months recovery takes. Tariffs attack both. Replacement equipment sourced from the US (or anywhere routed through tariffed supply chains) costs more and often ships slower as suppliers reroute. Indemnity periods set when equipment lead times were shorter may no longer cover the actual rebuild timeline.
If your BI worksheet predates the August escalation, the question to ask is specific: would the indemnity period and limit survive a loss where every replacement input costs 15–50% more and takes a quarter longer to arrive?
3. Cargo and transit: values in motion
For importers and exporters, the insured value of goods in transit should reflect landed cost — which now includes duties on many lanes. Shipments valued at pre-tariff invoice cost are underinsured the moment they cross a tariffed border. Businesses that shifted sourcing to new suppliers and new routes this year should also confirm their cargo policy's geographic terms and per-conveyance limits still match how goods actually move.
4. The quiet one: counterparty risk
The Lockton report is frank about the exposure fewer businesses insure at all. US business bankruptcy filings rose 16.9% in the twelve months ending June 30, 2026, per the Administrative Office of the US Courts. Canadian insolvencies rose 4.9% in the twelve months ending July 31, per the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy — and both figures predate the August tariff escalation.
If a material share of your receivables sits with US customers — or with Canadian customers who themselves depend on US demand — that concentration is now a named risk. Trade credit insurance exists for exactly this, and remains one of the least-purchased coverages in the Canadian mid-market. Short of buying it, the minimum discipline is monitoring payment behaviour now rather than waiting for insolvency statistics to confirm what your aging report already suspects.
What to do this quarter
- Re-run property, stock, and equipment values at current duty-inclusive replacement cost, and document the basis.
- Ask for agreed-value or margin-clause endorsements while the soft market is paying for them.
- Rebuild the business interruption worksheet against post-tariff costs and lead times; check the indemnity period honestly.
- Re-state cargo values at landed cost and confirm routing terms match current supply chains.
- Map receivables concentration, and price trade credit coverage even if only to know what the risk costs.
None of this requires predicting where the trade war goes next. It requires making sure the programme you already pay for reflects the economy you already operate in.
Check your programme against today's costs
Summit's advisors run tariff-adjusted valuation reviews as part of every renewal. Start with a risk assessment to see where your values, BI worksheet and cargo terms stand, or get a quote to compare your current programme.
Sources: Lockton Canada, fall 2026 report; Canadian Federation of Independent Business; Administrative Office of the US Courts; Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy.